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Exclusive Poll: Biden Steady With Under 30 Voters Heading Into Election Day, With One Weakness

In a reversal, young white voters now support Trump but Biden still holds a significant lead overall, thanks to gains among young Black and Hispanic voters.


Less than a week before Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains his large advantage over President Donald Trump among young people, the latest edition of Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, Powered by John Zogby Strategies shows. Biden’s overwhelming support among young Black and Hispanic voters is helping him weather a drop in support from young white voters.  

The survey shows that nearly six in 10 young voters (59%) back the Democratic nominee over Trump (37%) in a two way race. Biden’s 22 point lead is identical to the margin in our September poll, when he earned the support of 57% of young voters, compared to Trump’s 35%.

In a four way race in our survey, Biden holds onto his 22 point lead over Trump (55%-33%), while Libertarian Jo Jorgensen draws 4% of the young vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins garners 3%. That is an improvement from our September poll, when Biden’s lead over the president was just 17 points in a four way race (49%-32%.)  

The advantage this will ultimately have for Biden will be determined entirely by turnout. With voting well underway across the country, young people are reportedly casting early votes in record numbers in battleground states such as Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Four years ago, when young voters backed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by an 18 point margin, just half of voters aged 18-29 turned out to vote.

One of the few bright spots for the president in our poll is that he now leads Biden among young white voters by two points (49%-47%), a shift from September when the Democratic nominee led by 6 points (50%-44%) among the same group of voters. However, Biden has made up for the loss in support through gains with young Black and Hispanic voters. The Democratic nominee leads young Black voters by 69 points (83%-14%), a 19 point gain from September, and Hispanic voters by 34 points (65%-31%), a four point increase from last month. 


Biden vs. Trump: Support among young voters across three racial groups has slightly shifted.

Pollsters often group 18-29 year olds into one bloc, but the newest Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey finds Biden’s support is much stronger among Gen-Z voters than Millennial voters. The Democratic nominee is winning 18-24 year olds by 36 points (66%-30%), while he’s winning 25-29 year olds by just 9 points (52%-43%). In September, this divide was a bit narrower. Then, Biden led Trump by 32 points among 18-24 year olds (62%-30%), and 13 points among 25-29 year olds (53%-40%). 


Biden vs. Trump: Gen-Z voters are more firmly in Biden’s camp than older Millennials.

Trump leads Biden by 13 points among young white voters without a college degree (53%-40%), and 15 points among young white men overall (56%-41%). The president leads the Democratic nominee by 14 points (52%-38%) among young voters who say they live in a “rural” area. However, there are continued signs the president’s overall base of support is softer than Biden’s among younger voters. Young, Born-Again Christian voters and young voters who identify as “blue collar” say they are backing the Democratic nominee over Trump, a phenomenon also present in our last poll. Biden leads by 10 points among young Born-Again voters and 26 points among young blue-collar voters.

Biden’s base among young voters appears iron-clad. He enjoys strong support from young female voters (64%-31%) and young suburban voters (63%-34%) compared to Trump. His support among young Black (83%-14%), Hispanic (65%-31%) and Asian (62%-33%) voters remains large as well. However, his support among young Black voters is a bit softer than Hillary Clinton’s was among the same group in 2016, according to exit polls (Clinton carried young Black voters by 76 points in 2016).

As Covid-19 cases skyrocket across the country, young people say the pandemic is their top political issue (37%), followed by jobs and the economy (25%), and then healthcare (23%). The president has made immigration a key issue in the final days of the campaign, but just 11% say it’s a top issue for them. Biden spoke about transitioning the U.S. from the oil industry during the final presidential debate, drawing a harsh rebuke from the president, but just 14% of young people listed climate change and the environment as a top political issue. 


Young voters were asked to name their top two political issues. Here are how they stacked up.

The same day Dr. Anthony Fauci made his strongest statement yet in favor of a national mask mandate, our survey showed a majority of young people (66%) indicated they want the U.S. federal government to mandate wearing masks. 

As the U.S. battles the global pandemic and its economic fallout, young people say they are not happy with the status quo, with 60% reporting the U.S. is on the “wrong track.” When asked whether they think the American Dream is “alive and well,” “presently in a coma,” or “dead and not coming back,” 47% say the American Dream is “presently in a coma” and 20% say it’s “dead and not coming back.” Just 26% of young people say the American Dream is “alive and well.” 

More than eight in 10 young voters (86%) believe the election is important to their future, with 60% of 18-29 year olds saying it’s “very important,” while 26% say it’s “somewhat important.” 

Young voters are more in favor of more revolutionary policies, rather than tinkering around the edges. When asked how the American Dream would be “strengthened best,” a majority (53%) say it will require a “great reset of the current system,” rather than a “revisiting” of “age-old principles” (34%.) More than seven in 10 young voters (72%) back term limits for senators, members of Congress and bureaucrats at federal agencies, and want big money removed from politics (73%.) 

The Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, Powered By John Zogby Strategies, was conducted online on September 17, 2020, and consisted of 1,012 likely voters ages 18 to 29. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

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